Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.089730 0.104270 0.120939 0.141575 0.166595 0.196146 0.233987
2025-10-05 0.069083 0.086538 0.108472 0.138450 0.178968 0.232731 0.311009
2025-10-12 0.056526 0.075552 0.101465 0.140198 0.198157 0.284260 0.427061
2025-10-19 0.046610 0.065957 0.094274 0.140229 0.215956 0.341663 0.579953
2025-10-26 0.039181 0.058387 0.088418 0.141088 0.236409 0.413338 0.799360
2025-11-02 0.032363 0.050402 0.080263 0.136357 0.246906 0.474830 1.045922
2025-11-09 0.026552 0.042935 0.071420 0.128258 0.249220 0.524222 1.312531
2025-11-16 0.022971 0.038579 0.067110 0.127724 0.267732 0.622167 1.808577
2025-11-23 0.020051 0.034860 0.063211 0.127107 0.286830 0.736945 2.509800
2025-11-30 0.017890 0.032162 0.060742 0.129054 0.314141 0.898195 3.655621
2025-12-07 0.016011 0.029673 0.058192 0.130213 0.341037 1.085444 5.339420
2025-12-14 0.014005 0.026591 0.053750 0.125479 0.349390 1.220105 7.139372
2025-12-21 0.011567 0.022313 0.046011 0.110495 0.320744 1.194971 7.938168
2025-12-28 0.010501 0.020801 0.044370 0.111856 0.349226 1.462167 12.370846
2026-01-04 0.009738 0.019829 0.043829 0.116391 0.393667 1.883843 21.513569
2026-01-11 0.008974 0.018730 0.042756 0.119112 0.434511 2.371996 37.434669
2026-01-18 0.008311 0.017759 0.041820 0.122105 0.480616 3.012546 69.132723
2026-01-25 0.007540 0.016407 0.039588 0.119970 0.502222 3.537090 115.018765
2026-02-01 0.006756 0.014911 0.036670 0.114452 0.503530 3.907960 174.562128
2026-02-08 0.006263 0.014080 0.035495 0.115175 0.541689 4.812614 351.216194
2026-02-15 0.005818 0.013303 0.034332 0.115611 0.580307 5.914471 763.675690
2026-02-22 0.005473 0.012744 0.033718 0.118176 0.637272 7.606760 2131.637145
2026-03-01 0.005143 0.012174 0.032957 0.119912 0.692482 9.681685 7037.424845